Handicapping The 2007 Kentucky Derby

The annual Run for the Roses is heating up - time to start separating the Kentucky Derby contenders from the pretenders by handicapping the ponies

By Mark LaMonica
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Ask someone the question, “Who will win the Kentucky Derby this year?” and you’ll get an answer. Ask nine other people that same question and you’ll get nine other answers.

There is no easy answer. Way too many factors beyond the bettor’s control: weather, positioning, humans as jockeys, horses that don’t talk and the very thing that makes gambling exciting – dumb luck.

But you can study and attempt to make an educated guess when deciding which horse to latch onto for two minutes in May.

On Derby Day, the betting pool is huge and payouts are much bigger than normal. So it’s worth a few minutes of your time if you want to put other people’s money in your pockets.

Information is the most valuable commodity when it comes to playing the horses. It’s all out there for you to use, so use it. It may cost a few bucks, but it could earn you a few more.

Here are some things to look for when making your run for the roses on the first Saturday in May.

There are quite a few numbers out there handicappers use to rate horses. Two are definitely worth looking at:

The Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), published by the Daily Racing Form, is one of the best evaluating tools for players. The BSF measures a horse’s performance based on a combination of race times and the inherent speed of the tracks where those races were run.  The higher the number, the better the horse. Theoretically.

How does an average player who just wants some action for the fastest two minutes in sports use this to their advantage? Simple. Take a look at the last few prep races for each contender. If the numbers are increasing steadily, odds are that horse hasn’t maxed out yet. If the numbers are decreasing significantly, well, perhaps it’s time to place your money elsewhere.However, one or two points in either direction from one race to the next shouldn’t be enough to scare you away. But if there’s a small point drop in each of the past three races, you may be better off donating your money to charity.

Over the past 10 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the average BSF for the winner is 109.1. Those same 10 horses averaged a 106.6 BSF in their last prep race before the Derby.

The Equibase Speed Figure does virtually the same thing as the BSF. The Equibase number charts how fast a horse has run in its past races based on the horse's actual time in combination with factors such as the condition of the track.

All the same rules apply for using Equibase as a measuring stick before selecting your preferred Derby contenders.

For example, Cobalt Blue posted a 114 Equibase number in the Grade II San Felipe on March 17, then came back three weeks later and bounced with a 97 and a seventh-place finish in the Illinois Derby. Not good.

Conversely, undefeated Curlin posted 115 in the Rebel on March 17, but registered a 122 four weeks later at the Arkansas Derby. Good.

These scores are available, for a small fee, on the Daily Racing Form and at Equibase.

Bloodlines

Don’t waste too much of your research time paying attention to who sired who. Every horse was sired by some other horse who may or may not have finished in the money at the Derby or another Triple Crown race. It makes for nice TV talk, but it rarely means much in the outcome. Leave the bloodlines to genealogy web sites and “The Da Vinci Code.”

Post Positions and Quarter-Poles

It makes a big difference. Just ask Brother Derek, the morning-line favorite at last year’s Derby who drew No. 18 in a field of 20 and could not summon enough of his speed to overcome the outer positioning.

Similarly, an inside post could be a reason to look in another direction. That horse will want to use its speed early to get out in front and avoid getting pinned along the rail. As the 1.25-mile race draws to an end – this is the longest race and the largest field any of these 3-year-olds have ever run in – the inside horse may run out of gas and lose to a closer.

Many claim that none of this really matters. That a horse’s starting gate in a field of 20 isn’t that crucial. They’ll throw out stats from 1995-2001, when five Derbies were won from Gate 15 and outward.

Despite the anomaly, only 10 Derbies ever were won from Gate 14 and outward.

Twelve Derbies have been won by the No. 1 horse and nine by the No. 2 horse. If you’re going to bet the inside horse, do your homework. Look at the past performances. Did they come from the inside to win their previous races? How did they perform from various post positions?

Another good indicator is a horse’s times at the quarter-poles. Did they come from far back or did they set the pace? How far behind did they get and how quickly did they close? All this info is available for free in the charts for each horse at http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007.

While this is not the only foolproof plan to fatten your wallet with cash instead of losing betting slips (hey, it’s a tax deduction!), it can help you narrow the field. Top favorites in outer gates equal bad news for horse owners and homeowners.

Trainers

Here we meet a group of folks worth noting. There are more to Derby trainers than just Baffert, Lukas, Zito and Pletcher, although that’s quite a healthy start.

Derby rookie trainers can be just as successful as veterans. John Servis would agree. You may remember his horse from 2004, Smarty Jones?

While ultimately it all comes down to the horse, trainers can often help you break the tie between two horses.

So . . . ?

Who’s going to win the Kentucky Derby? Well, if you follow the outline above, you just may find out before post time on May 5.

P.S. Start your research with Curlin, Cowtown Cat, Dominican, Hard Spun, Scat Daddy and Street Sense.

More Bodog.com Press...