Bodog Fantasy Draft Advice

Which players will you regret drafting this year? We outline our candidates below

Aug. 23, 2007

By Carlisle Richards
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Bodog Fantasy: Who's Falling Off?

Which players will you regret drafting this year? We outline our candidates below

Aug. 23, 2007

By Carlisle Richards
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

C'mon, admit it. When Falcons quarterback Michael Vick entered his guilty plea for being the Dana White of the pit bull circuit, like any other decent fantasy-football addict you told yourself, "Damn, I’m glad he isn't on my fantasy team."

And why not? Vick will be playing "don't drop the soap-on-a-rope" for at least 12 months after his co-conspirators turned against him, forcing him to come clean. He obviously should be avoided in standard fantasy leagues this year, and may even be worthless in keeper leagues since he's more likely to be in the CFL once he's released.

But don't kid yourself: he won't be the only fantasy pick to fall off in the 2007 fantasy football season.

Who's Falling Off - The Entire Atlanta Falcons Offense

Why They'll Fall – The loss of Vick should cause the decline of all the Falcons' key fantasy players.

First, tight end Alge Crumpler's in trouble because replacement QB Joey Harrington is cyanide to any fantasy receiver. As the starter in Miami, Chris Chambers had his worst season ever with Harrington under center, posting 677 receiving yards. Those who believe Harrington will add more accuracy to the Falcons' passing attack should remember he's even better at throwing TDs to defenses.

Second, some fantasy gurus feel that since Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn will be the focus of the Falcons' offense, it will translate to better numbers. They should think again.

One of the perks of having a running QB on your team are the holes it opens up. Teams were scared not only of Vick running wild on play-action passes and rollouts, but also the holes it created for other runners in the backfield. In 2003 - the year the "Madden Curse" took Vick out for 10 regular season games - Dunn's numbers dipped to 672 rushing yards and the Falcons' rushing attack went from being ranked No. 3 to 13.

Unless Dunn and Norwood find new ways to be more productive in the running game, both could be flops this year.

Who's Falling Off - Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins Running Back

Why He’ll Fall – You could say 2006 was Portis' "fall-off" year, as he missed eight games with various injuries. Most, however, wrote it off since Joe Gibbs has maintained Portis would keep his starting job. This year could be worse, however, because backup Ladell Betts was stellar in his absence.

While Portis was healing up, Betts grabbed the rock and took off running. He posted 1,599 total yards and five touchdowns in 2006. This year, while Portis is still No. 1, don't think Betts won't see his fair share of touches too.

"It's been mandated that Clinton is the starter, yes, but certainly we'll find ways that accentuates the dynamic things that Ladell can do," assistant coach Al Saunders said. "He's just the kind of player you can put into an offense that will flourish. The offense is governed by what players can do. And being part of the passing game is one Ladell's strengths."

In laymen's terms, Betts is too talented not to get his share of the rock and present injury woes for Portis will only help his cause. Portis missed most of camp and every preseason game this year, making Betts the safer pick to start Week 1.

"If I'm healthy for the next game or the following one, and they put me in, then they put me in," Portis says. "I feel like I know myself out here, and I'm trying to keep my conditioning up, and it's all on them, man. I've been playing football for 12 years now, and ain't much changed.”

Hopefully his injury problems have.

Who's Falling Off - Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs Running Back

Why He'll Fall – Although I'm sure everyone who has L.J. on their fantasy team is ecstatic he re-signed with the Kansas City Chiefs, the nightmare isn't over yet. There are still a slew of questions surrounding L.J. even though he's back in camp:

Can he stay healthy after a 400 carry season? No back has ever matched those numbers the next season and only one, Buccaneers back James Wilder, was able to top 1,200 yards.

* Will his offensive line create opportunities? They've lost two Pro-Bowl tackles with Will Shields retired and Damien McIntosh hurt.
* Will the Chiefs have a QB to keep defenses honest? With Damon Huard injured, second-year QB Brodie Croyle looks like the starter in Kansas City, which means defenses will keep eight in the box until he shows he can run the offense.
* Will Johnson lose playing time to other backs? Rumors are already sprouting that L.J. might not be ready for Week 1, giving Michael Bennett and Kolby Smith opportunities to steal some of his carries.

While his numbers may not be in jeopardy of plummeting like Jamal Lewis' were a year ago, any of the above scenarios could keep him from being a top-five back this year.

Who's Falling Off - Thomas Jones, New York Jets Running Back

Why He'll Fall – As great as it is that Jones is a Jet and no longer has to split carries with Cedric Benson, his days of fending off young up-and-coming backs are far from over.

Jets coach Eric Mangini proved that he's willing to run a back-by-committee system and has mentioned he'll be doing some of the same this year with second-year runner Leon Washington.

"There will be some weeks where Leon will get more carries and that will fluctuate week in and week out," Mangini said. "There will be different packages that guys will be in. That's what you want to be able to do, is have flexibility to adjust to whatever you anticipate seeing."

To plant more seeds of doubt, Jones injured his calf last week during team drills, clouding his chances to start Week 1 of the regular season.

Jones put up solid numbers while fending off Benson in his years as a Chicago Bear, but he's never had a serious injury in preseason and he's never had a coach prepared to split carries 50/50.

Who's Falling Off - Travis Henry, Denver Broncos Running Back

Why He'll Fall – Because Mike Shanahan is a fantasy football communist.

Every year he puts his commie ways into action and plays musical chairs with the most important position in fantasy football. One day Mike Bell gets to start, the next it's Tatum Bell. One year former-Bronco Mike Anderson is running for 1,000-plus yards, the next it's Olandis Gary.

He seems to relish in proving running back is a position to be shared by everyone; either that or he takes some sort of devilish pleasure in screwing fantasy teams every week.

So if you want to put your eggs in his basket and draft Travis Henry, be my guest. But don't be surprised if Henry sits despite being listed as probable on the Broncos' depth chart. And with Henry's recent knee injury, don't be shocked if Mike Bell starts Week 1 and Henry has to battle to get his starting job back.

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