Bodog NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

On Oct. 1, the Seahawks visited Soldier Field without the services of 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander, and were rolled up by the Bears to the tune of 37-6.

Two weeks later, the Eagles went to the Superdome and watched Drew Brees pick apart the secondary for 275 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Saints won on a last-second John Carney field goal, 27-24.

A lot has happened since then. The Saints captured a division championship for the first time since 2000. The Eagles made Jeff Garcia relevant again. The Seahawks won the NFC West in spite of themselves, while the Bears uncorked Devin Hester, a rookie who set an NFL record with six kick returns for touchdowns.

Yet now, all is forgotten. Nearly nine full weeks since trick-or-treats and jack-o-lanterns reigned supreme, all anybody really wants to do is reminisce about October.

But what, if anything, have the pundits gleaned from games that occurred over two months ago? Consider the case of the Eagles. Since Oct. 15, the team lost star QB and emotional leader Donovan McNabb, went through a stretch where it lost four of five games, yet bounced back to close out the regular season with five straight wins.

They're not even a reasonable facsimile of the team that played New Orleans in October. Andy Reid has since turned playcalling duties over to offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg while Brian Westbrook - who only touched the ball 19 times for 75 total yards against the Saints in Week 6 - has been a virtual workhorse down the stretch.

The Saints will have to recognize the new-look Eagles after resting through the bye week. For all the positives that have come from this Cinderella season in the Big Easy, there remain some problems - the Saints are only 4-4 at the Superdome, 3-5 against the spread. They were particularly poor down the stretch, dropping home dates to three non-playoff teams in Cincinnati, Washington and Carolina. The most startling stat to come out of that period was how inept the offense became - after averaging 25.8 points per game this season, New Orleans could only muster 15.6 in those three losses, granted the last one to the Panthers was played with mostly backups.

This is not a positive trend heading into a game with the staunch Philadelphia defense. The Eagles have not given up more than 24 points during their win streak, and have only allowed an average of 14.6 over their last three. They're also a team that travels well, boasting a 5-3 away record that included an impressive three-game road sweep of divisional rivals Dallas, Washington and the New York Giants.

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Following the thematic landscape of renewing NFC acquaintanceships are the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks. They too have precious little to reference from their earlier meeting. As mentioned, Alexander was shelved with a broken foot, while Rex Grossman was being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate.

How times have changed.

The Bears are seemingly governed by the Grossman Edict - as the free-wheeling QB goes, so too does the fortune of Chicago football. While strong special teams and a resilient defense have saved his hide on a few occasions (like winning a game vs. Minnesota where Grossman recorded a 1.3 QB rating), the numbers indicate that when Grossman tanks, the Bears tank right along with him.

The last seven weeks of the regular season have shown this trend to be all too true. Grossman has thrown six touchdowns to eight interceptions and has completed just 51 percent of his passes, and the Bears have gone 4-3 against the spread despite playing teams with a combined 50-62 record.

He faces an interesting proposition in Seattle, a team with a mediocre run defense (22nd overall) and a secondary that starts signed-off-the-streets Pete Hunter and rookie Kelly Jennings. Yet both reserves were instrumental in the wild-card win over Dallas - Hunter recovered a fumble, and Jennings forced one that led to a safety. Chicago's primary goal will be to run the ball, but Lovie Smith knows that in order for the ground game to be successful, there must be some semblance of a passing attack.

Offensively, Seattle knows what it needs to do to be successful - score more than 20 points. The Seahawks are 7-2 this year when racking up 20 or more points, compared to just 2-5 when they score under 20. While it's not a magic number for success, it does lend credence to the notion that Seattle is still an offensive team at heart, and needs the offense to be rolling in order for the defense to stay fresh and make plays. - MH

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Six games into the 2006 regular season, Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick knew he had a problem. Despite his team’s 4-2 record, its offense was stagnant and predictable. So Billick had to make a tough move. He had to fire friend and offensive coordinator Jim Fassel, and take over the playcalling duties himself.

The move paid off immediately. On Oct. 29, the Ravens traveled to New Orleans and ran it up on the Saints, 35-22. Not that Baltimore had turned into the next “Greatest Show on Turf” overnight, but it was a start. The Ravens would lose just one more game and earn the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.

The Indianapolis Colts haven’t had trouble scoring in a while, but they too have been forced to make adjustments to mask weaknesses. One in particular was run defense. The past tense is used on this occasion in light of last week’s 23-8 wild-card victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Indianapolis surrendered a league-worst 173 rushing yards per game over the regular season. Against Larry Johnson, one of the best runners in the business, the Colts gave up just 44.

And so we come to the meeting of these two Achilles, both with heels to shield and both facing opponents with the weapons to exploit their vulnerabilities.

The Colts are more than capable of running it up on the league’s best defenses, even a top-ranked one like Baltimore’s. Peyton Manning threw for 4,397 yards in the regular season and saved some of his best performances for road games in places like Denver and New England.

The Ravens, for their part, possess a running back in Jamal Lewis who racked up seven touchdowns in his last seven games, and they'll be playing in front of the same raucous crowd that spurred them to a 7-1 home record in the regular season.

Billick summed it up in a conference call Tuesday: “The old adage is that defense wins championships and offense sells tickets, I know that sounds great, but I don’t know that it’s true. You play to your strengths. Our strengths, our assets, we’ve got a lot of them on the defense side and the offensive side. [Indianapolis is] constructed to score a lot of points and win that way. Both are sound philosophies. Both are built with a specific structure in mind and we’ll see what happens.” - JB

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Marty Schottenheimer - whose list of playoff failures is long - meets Bill Belichick, the most successful coach of the decade. The contrast is stark on the sidelines and in the huddle, where the Patriots have playoff experience and the Chargers have a lot of flash, but no postseason success.

Are the Bolts only built for the regular season? We'll find out for certain Sunday.

One reason San Diego should be worried is the point spread. It's listed as a mere 4.5-point favorite. The Chargers are 14-2, have won 10 straight, are well rested, haven't lost at home, and are playing an opponent that has to travel across the country after winning in the wild-card round. Yet, they don't seem to have many believers outside of southern California.

Many observers seem to feel Belichick will have a plan ready to confuse Chargers QB Philip Rivers and that Tom Brady will avoid the pass rush of Shawne Merriman often enough to keep New England close, if not push the Pats on top.

The thing is, no one has fathomed how Belichick might stop LaDainian Tomlinson, including the coach himself. "We haven't done very well against him. He's killed a lot of people besides us, and he's killed us. A team might keep him down for a few carries, but it's just a matter of time before he breaks out, in one way or another, and gets in the end zone," Belichick told the New York Times this week.

Last year, Tomlinson ran for 134 yards against New England, and he could exploit a linebacking corps that's not extraordinarily quick and a secondary that will be without safety Rodney Harrison (sprained knee).

On the other side of the ball, no one should take Merriman for granted. The Chargers' linebacker could do to the Patriots what Jason Taylor of Miami did in the regular season, which is blow by the offensive line and harass Brady all game.

Bettors should consider that home teams in the playoffs are 95-39 since 1993. In terms of this game, the public could be overemphasizing the Patriots' pedigree. They happen to be facing a very balanced team, on both sides of the ball. - AB

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PHOTO: Brian Westbrook has played a much larger role in the Philadelphia offense down the stretch. (AI Wire photo)

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