Arena Bowl XXI Preview & Prediction

It's experience versus Cinderella in the championship game of arena football

July 27, 2007

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

As NFL training camps open all over the country, the Arena Football League's window to football-starved fans is about to close. But not before the 21st champion in the plucky organization's history is crowned.

Sunday in New Orleans, the San Jose SaberCats face the Columbus Destroyers in ArenaBowl XXI. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

Loyal AFL fan or open-minded observer, here are a few things to watch for in the big game played on the small field:

The Line

Most sportsbooks opened the SaberCats as 6-point favorites, give or take, over the Destroyers.

League champions in 2002 and 2004, San Jose went 13-3 in the regular season, gaining a first-round bye in the process, and went on to victories over Colorado, 76-67, and Chicago, 61-49, in the playoffs.

It was nothing new for the SaberCats, a team that's made eight straight postseason appearances and advanced to at least the semifinals in seven of them.

Meanwhile, the Destroyers, who dropped five of their last six regular season games to finish 7-9, were the only team in the AFL to qualify for the postseason with a losing record.

Shockingly, Columbus rattled off three straight road victories in the playoffs, all as touchdown-plus underdogs, the biggest of which came over Dallas (15-1 in the regular season) in the National Conference semifinals.

The Offense

San Jose's quarterback is Mark Grieb. For Columbus, it's Matt Nagy.

Grieb, a three-time All-AFL selection, loves to spread the ball around and does so extremely effectively. Three of his receivers - James Roe, Ben Nelson and Rodney Wright - racked up over 1,000 yards receiving in 2007.

Roe caught 127 passes for 1,560 yards and 40 touchdowns, among the best numbers in the league.

Nagy has but one 1,000-yard receiver at his disposal: Damien Groce, who's an expert at making big plays out of short throws. Conservative play-calling should be the plan for Nagy, whose 15 interceptions were fourth worst in the AFL.

For Nagy, the run to the ArenaBowl has been about gaining the respect of the naysayers.

"No one believed but us," he said. "We beat the best teams record-wise in the league. Some may say we're lucky. But we got hot at the right time and now we are going for a title."

The Defense

San Jose allowed just 761 points all season, second to only Chicago (719), and its defense is a big reason the team is playing for a title on Sunday.

"Everybody talks about offense in this sport, but the defense won the game for us," said Grieb after his team beat Chicago to advance to the finals. "We played okay on offense, but our defense really got it done."

San Jose had four interceptions in the conference championship, led by Marquis Floyd and Clevan Thomas, both of whom snagged two picks. Thomas was the 2002 and 2003 Defensive Player of the Year and forced 13 turnovers (four fumbles and nine picks) in 2007.

Columbus' Jerald Brown had two interceptions of his own in the Destroyers' 66-56 win over the Georgia Force in the National Conference Championship. His second pick was a record-setting 54-yard touchdown return, the longest in AFL postseason history.

Brown was cut by the Kansas City Chiefs last season after earning the 2006 Defensive Player of the Year award in his first year with the Destroyers. As another successful AFL campaign comes to a close, he's hungry for another shot at the NFL.

"My agent will get to me after the season," Brown said. "I'm hopeful to get into a camp and make a name for myself. You never know what may happen.

"That's always my goal, playing in the NFL. But if it doesn't happen, then it doesn't happen. I just have to follow the path God has for me. If you hold on to the NFL for the rest of your life, then you might have nothing."

The Coaches

In 1994, Doug Kay was Darren Arbet's boss. Kay, 71, was the defensive coordinator of the Albany Firebirds. Arbet, 44, was the defensive assistant.

In 2007, it's the subordinate that's expected to defeat his former master. Arbet has been the head coach of the SaberCats since 1999. Kay is in just his second season with the Destroyers, but has over 50 years of coaching experience.

Both command a great deal of each other's respect.

"The record that he has supplied to the people of San Jose is phenomenal," Kay said. "I'm proud of him as a coach, but I'm also proud of him as a person. I would think of him as a son."

"Coach Kay is a very detailed man, a very strong guy, and demands a lot of respect," Arbet said. "That's something I do with the SaberCats, and I learned it all from him."

The Prediction

San Jose, 63-45. The SaberCats have too much experience to let an underdog with a questionable quarterback pull the upset.

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