Texas Football Predictions

by Shawn Sillinger: Posted on Tuesday, August 01, 2006 @ 10:00:22 AM

This might be one of those rare occasions when something isn’t bigger in Texas.

We’re talking about regular season win totals here. Last year, the Longhorns went 11-0 before crushing Colorado 70-3 at the Big 12 championship game, then squeaking past USC 41-38 at the thrilling Rose Bowl to complete a perfect season. Can they do it again? Without Vince Young at quarterback, perhaps not. But that doesn’t mean the ‘Horns can’t hook another national title. Their total for regular season wins this year is 9.5, with the OVER priced at –150.

Burnt orange has been very much in fashion ever since Mack Brown took over the football program in Austin. His Longhorns have never failed to win at least nine games in a season during his eight-year tenure. That streak should continue – but is victory No. 10 in the cards? It looks that way. There are only two games in the 12-game regular season that look like trouble for Texas: Week 2 at home against the Ohio State Buckeyes, and Week 8 in Lincoln against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Because the Longhorns are so potent on the ground with returning tailbacks Jamaal Charles, Selvin Young and Henry Melton, the team should be able to win the other 10 matchups even with the freshman duo of Colt McCoy and Jevan Snead battling for starting QB honors.

The Trojans are also going to feature a new man behind center this season: John David Booty, who is sure to spawn all manner of ill-advised headline puns. He should also collect a sizeable number of victories – the total for the Trojans this season is an even 10, with the OVER a slight favorite at –125. There is concern about the health of Booty’s back, but redshirt freshman Mark Sanchez is waiting in the wings, and he may prove to be better than Booty and even Leinart when all is said and done.

But will that be enough to make the OVER cash in? The Pac-10 Conference isn’t the weak sister it used to be, but the Trojans have the benefit of playing the best teams (Oregon, Cal and Arizona State) at home. Their two toughest non-conference opponents, Nebraska and Notre Dame, also have to travel west. It would surprise nobody if USC loses one of those games. Losing two, on the other hand, might be a bit of a stretch – it would also create a push, and a push is always better than a loss.

The aforementioned Buckeyes are also looking at a total of 10 for this year. However, with the OVER priced at –140, and with Ohio State having to plow through the always-tough Big Ten as well as the Longhorns, this doesn’t look like a value bet by any means. How about the UNDER at +110? That doesn’t look too good, either. Ohio State seems destined to win exactly 10 games in the regular season. There are seven virtual gimmes on the schedule, plus games at Texas and Michigan State, then at home versus Penn State and Michigan. This is a similar gauntlet to the one the Trojans are facing; sweeping all four games looks unlikely, but it’s just as hard to imagine OSU dropping two of those matchups. Best to stay away from this total and consider laying some cash on last year’s Rose Bowl teams.

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