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NCAAF: Penn State vs. Ohio State
Sep 23 2006 3:30PM
Favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes Over/Under 46
Since
the beginning of the campaign there's been revenge
on the Buckeyes' minds with September matchups
against Texas and Penn State and it's one down,
one to go.
Two weeks after winning a
No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in Austin, the top-ranked
Buckeyes (3-0 SU & ATS) look to win the matchup
of last year's Big Ten co-champions as they open
conference play against No. 24 Penn State on Saturday
at Ohio Stadium.
Ohio Stadium is the only
Big Ten venue where Penn State (2-1 SU & 1-1
ATS) has not won since joining the conference
in 1993. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 SU in Columbus
since winning there 30 years ago. To make matters
worse for Penn State investors the Buckeyes are
7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
That skid also includes the
last time Penn State played the nation's No. 1
team, losing 28-9 at Ohio Stadium in 1998. The
Buckeyes are looking to even the all-time series
at 11 wins apiece. The home team is 8-0 ATS in
their last 8 meetings and the Nittany Lions are
0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Columbus,
Ohio.
Paterno's team likely must
be at its best to win on the road against the
Buckeyes, who have averaged 426.7 yards per game
and have been tough to stop against the pass and
the run.
While Pittman has rushed
for 340 yards and 6.7 per carry, Troy Smith has
hooked up with Ginn and Gonzalez a combined 31
times for 533 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith,
one of Ohio State's eight returning starters on
offense, has completed 69.1 percent of his passes
for an average of 256.3 yards per game.
Penn State's defense already
had a tough time with one Heisman-hopeful quarterback
this season, allowing Notre Dame's Brady Quinn
to complete 25 of 36 passes for 287 yards with
three touchdowns. In their only game against a
potent offense this year, the Nittany Lions failed
to force a turnover while allowing the Irish to
total 397 yards.
The duo of Anthony Morelli
and Tony Hunt will try to find holes in an Ohio
State defense which has surrendered only 26 points
this season. Hunt, a 1,000-yard rusher last season,
is coming off his best performance of the year
with 143 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against
Youngstown State. He was held to 110 rushing yards
through the first two games.
Morelli played poorly last
week as he went 11-of-27 for 154 yards. He failed
to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in
three games. The junior faces a Buckeyes team
which had eight sacks, including three by defensive
tackle Quinn Pitcock, and three interceptions
last week.
If the Buckeyes can showcase
another defensive beauty, the Nittany Lions will
have absolutely no chance at a SU win and little
chance at a cover.
Notable Game Trends:
- Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS vs.
a team with a winning record.
- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in
their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5+.
- Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in
their last 6 conference games.
- Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in
their last 28 games overall.
- Nittany Lions are 2-6 ATS
in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5+.
- Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS
in their last 7 conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 2-6 ATS
in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS
in their last 10 games overall.
- Road team is 0-8 ATS in
their last 8 meetings.
- Under is 3-0 in Buckeyes
last 3 games following a SU win.
- Under is 5-0 in Buckeyes
last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0 in Nittany
Lions last 3 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Nittany
Lions last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Prediction - Ohio State 31 Penn
State 13
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