NFL MVP Wagering

by Mark Rothstein

These guys can’t all be named NFL MVP, can they?

Anyone looking for an easy bargain among the candidates to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award is bound to be disappointed. All the usual big-name players are packed tightly at the top of the futures market with odds that are shorter than what you’d expect in this kind of situation. No fewer than 18 players are listed at +1000 or shorter, with the field also set at +500.

Track down the MVP odds list from last year, and you’ll see a different story. Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning was way out in front at +350, followed by New England QB Tom Brady at +800. Next on the list at +1000 was another pair of pivots: Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb and Atlanta’s Michael Vick. Nobody else last season had odds as short as this quartet.

In hindsight (and in foresight, for those intrepid handicappers who got it right), Seattle running back Shaun Alexander was an excellent value pick at +1800. Fifteen QBs had won the award since 1986 compared to just five RBs (MVP honors were shared on two occasions); however, some quick math suggests taking the established Alexander at more than five times the odds of Manning was sensible – especially with fewer elite RBs available last year.

Forget about that this time around. Not only is Alexander right up there with the big boys at +400, so too are fellow RBs Larry Johnson of Kansas City (+400) and LaDainian Tomlinson of San Diego (+600). They still trail Manning at +300, but there is no longer the same incentive to cut against the grain and pick someone other than a QB to win the award.

What about wide receivers? Forget about it. The Associated Press has never selected a WR as the league MVP. Never. Not even San Francisco legend Jerry Rice earned this honor (although the Pro Football Writers of America did choose him in 1987, the AP picked Denver QB John Elway instead). Heck, the AP even chose a place-kicker back in 1982: Washington’s Mark Moseley. There’s a first time for everything, but you probably don’t want to become a handicapping guinea pig by laying your cash on the likes of Oakland’s Randy Moss (+1000) or Dallas’ Terrell Owens (+1000).

If it’s time to go back to the tried and true QB position, there are nine of them in the 18 players getting short odds. The “value” picks are the ones who are coming off injury, like Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer (+1500), Baltimore’s Steve McNair (+1500) and Jacksonville’s Byron Leftwich (+1700). These are three tremendous QBs. McNair even shared MVP honors with Manning just three years ago. Whether he has anything left in the tank, and whether his “Air McNair” act will play in Baltimore, remain to be seen. Since Palmer might miss the first few weeks of the 2006 season, Leftwich looks like the best pick out of this trio at his slightly longer odds.

There’s also another former MVP winner out there – a three-time winner, no less. Green Bay’s Brett Favre is listed at +2000. This is about as good a bounce-back candidate as one could hope for in this kind of futures bet. He’s a big name, the Packers have retooled the offense to try to avoid last year’s catastrophe, and this could actually be Favre’s last season in the NFL. This is no broken down mule we’re talking about, either. Favre’s 2004 performance (92.4 QB rating) was nearly identical to his 1997 MVP season (92.6). Something similar in 2006 might just do the trick. For NFL MVP Odds click here.

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