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predictions - The Big Game - November 15, 2006
by: VIP.com
By Michael Robinson: History
is in the making this Saturday in Columbus as
two 11-0 teams do battle, with the winner going
to the national championship game. The fact that
these are two of the nation’s top programs,
and fierce rivals, just makes it even better.
Michigan (+7) at Ohio State
When Ohio State has the
ball
The Ohio State offense is
20th in the nation in rushing and 45th in passing.
Quarterback, Troy Smith is the favorite to win
the Heisman Trophy, and while his passing numbers
do not jump out at you, his 26 to 4 touchdown
to interception ratio certainly does.
Ohio State would prefer to
run the ball to win this game, and the Buckeyes
do have two horses in Antonio Pittman and Chris
Wells. Their best runner though may be their quarterback,
and you can look for double-digit carries this
week from Smith, even though he has done that
only once all year.
When Smith does throw it,
he has speedsters on the outside in Ted Ginn Jr.
and Anthony Gonzalez.
Michigan is 3rd in the nation
in total defense and tops against the run. That
means that Ohio State is going to have to throw
more than they want to. This formula worked well
when the Buckeyes played then number two Texas
back in September.
The Longhorns did a
good job slowing down the run, but Smith threw
for 269 yards in an impressive 24-7 road win.
The Michigan secondary is the weak spot of the
defense despite the presence of cornerback Leon
Hall, and that is where Ohio State will have most
of their success.
When Michigan has the
ball
The Michigan offense is 12th
in the nation in rushing and 91st in passing.
Junior quarterback, Chad Henne has thrown for
less yards this year than his first two, but his
completion percentage and quarterback rating are
career highs.
Henne’s passing attempts
are down this year because of the Wolverines successful
rushing attack. Mike Hart has bounced back from
an injury plagued 2005, and is on pace for a 1,500
yard season.
Henne is not the scrambler
that Smith is, but if given time, he can find
receivers Mario Manningham and Steve Breaston.
Manningham’s health is still a question
mark, but he should be ready to go full-speed
for this one.
The Ohio State defense is
8th in the country overall, and pretty balanced
between run and pass defense. Unlike Michigan,
they are a no-name unit for the most part, but
they do lead the country in scoring defense (7.8
points per game).
Game Summary and Prediction
Michigan coach, Lloyd Carr
has now played Ohio State 11 times. His record
overall is 6-5, but it is just 1-4 head-to-head
with Ohio State coach, Jim Tressel.
The pressure is really on
Carr to win this game even though it is on the
road. The Wolverines faithful do not want to hear
any more excuses, especially with a defense as
dominating as theirs.
Ultimately, I believe that
Michigan falls just short based on the playmaking
ability of Smith, but I look for the Wolverines
defense to keep this close to the end.
Prediction:
Ohio State 24, Michigan 20
For all College Football
betting lines, visit VIP.com
Posted by miker at November
15, 2006 02:56 PM
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