Free Week 9 NFL Expert Picks

Editor’s Note: The selections in this column are purely the opinion of the writer, and are not being endorsed by any or all parties.

Games Considered But Not Picked

Cleveland (+12.5) at San Diego: Considered picking Cleveland. The Browns are fresh off a home win over the Jets, and the team seems pleased as punch that offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon is gone. The Chargers are without linebacker Shawne Merriman, who is dropping the appeal for his suspension.

That is a big blow to the Chargers’ defense, but I can’t go against a San Diego team that is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) at home. Cleveland also still hasn’t proven that it can play two good games in a row.

Dallas (-3) at Washington: Considered picking Washington. The Redskins looked horrible before their bye-week losing three straight, but they will be motivated for this game against their hated rivals. I also see the Cowboys and Tony Romo coming back to Earth after their 25 point fourth quarter against Carolina.

However, Washington’s quarterback situation is very unsettled, and I could see Mark Brunell being pulled for Jason Campbell at some point in this game. Santana Moss and Clinton Portis also look questionable, another worrying factor.

Tennessee (+9.5) at Jacksonville: Considered picking Jacksonville. Jacksonville is coming off an impressive road win at Philadelphia. It was their first win away from home this year, and they did it with David Garrard at quarterback instead of Byron Leftwich, aka “Fat Albert” according to profootballtalk.com. The Jaguars are 3-0 straight up, and ATS, at home this year.

Tennessee has covered the spread four out of their last five games. Three of those covers were on the road, including a 14-13 loss at Indianapolis in which they were 18 point dogs. While I believe that Jacksonville will win by double digits on Sunday, those factors cause doubt.

NFL Week 9 Selections

Miami (+13.5) vs. Chicago: The Bears (7-0) have struggled a couple of times on the road this year against Minnesota and Arizona. Not coincidentally, quarterback Rex Grossman threw six of his seven interceptions in those two games. At home, they have been dominating, winning their four games by an average margin of over 30 points.

Miami (1-6) is still getting some respect because of Coach Nick Saban and their stable of defensive veterans. Quarterback, Joey Harrington has thrown for a lot of yards the last three weeks, but also seven interceptions. That is a bad omen against this Bears’ defense. NFL Free Pick: Chicago

Kansas City (+2.5) at St. Louis: The Rams let San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson run all over them last week, and they need to at least contain Larry Johnson this week. The home field is a huge advantage as Kansas City is just a different team away from Arrowhead stadium.

The Chiefs have won four of five games with backup Damon Huard, as he has been really careful about not committing turnovers. The one loss though was 45-7 at Pittsburgh, and their secondary will have trouble against Marc Bulger and the St. Louis receivers. NFL Free Pick: St. Louis

Denver (+2.5) at Pittsburgh: The Denver defense got manhandled by Indianapolis last week. However, it was their only bad performance of the year, and the Colts and Peyton Manning just have the Broncos number for some reason. It is a strange triangle in that Denver has a mastery of New England, and the Patriots own the Colts.

Ben Roethlisberger has been horrible this year with 11 interceptions in six games. Clearly, he is not 100% healthy. The positive side for Pittsburgh is they have played much better at home this year, but they do not deserve to be a 2.5 point favorite over this very good Denver team. NFL Free Pick: Denver

Indianapolis (+2.5) at New England. The Patriots beat the Colts four straight times in 2004 and 2005. Included in that streak was two playoff wins. Indianapolis did win 40-21 in New England last year as Peyton Manning broke his 0-7 streak in Foxborough.

Assuming that Manning plays well in this game, as he has all season, I still like New England. The Patriots threw the ball 43 times against Minnesota on Sunday night and ran it only 15 times. Expect those numbers to reverse as Bill Belichick knows they can run on this team. More running means more time of possession, and Manning on the sidelines where he can’t hurt them. NFL Free Pick: New England

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