that off my chest, here are Week Four’s picks,
which hopefully start reversing this awful trend.
Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee
Dallas is 1-1 and coming
off a bye-week. It has been a strange year to
say the least for the Cowboys. With the Drew Bledsoe
quarterback controversy, the Bill Parcells retirement
rumors, and Terrell Owens just being Terrell Owens.
Now, the Owens saga has reached a new level with
the report that Owens recently tried to commit
Owens was already questionable
to play because of his broken finger, but this
puts his return highly in doubt. Look for Parcells
to institute a conservative game plan, figuring
that he can still win this game by pounding it
on the ground with Julius Jones and Marion Barber.
Tennessee is 0-3 on the season,
although they are coming off their best effort
of the year in a 13-10 loss at Miami. This is
Tennessee’s first home game since Week One,
which resulted in a 23-16 loss to the Jets.
Quarterback, Kerry Collins
will again get the start, but he could be replaced
by rookie Vince Young for part of the game. Collins
needs to avoid interceptions, and the best way
to accomplish that is to get the running game
going, at least somewhat. The defense needs to
get pressure on Bledsoe, as he is good for a pick
or two if under heavy duress.
This is a big spread considering the Owens situation.
I would prefer it to be 10 points, but you can’t
have everything in life. NFL
Free Pick: Tennessee
Miami (-3.5) at Houston
Miami is 1-2 on the year,
and have been disastrous against the spread at
0-3. In fact, they have not really come close
to covering the spread this year. The good news
is that the team knows it can get back to .500
with a win, which could easily put them in a tie
for first in the AFC East.
The Miami running game has
been adequate with Ronnie Brown, and Miami is
likely to give him plenty of work again this week.
That is because quarterback, Daunte Culpepper
has been just awful. Culpepper might actually
feel more comfortable on the road this week away
from the harsh Miami fans.
Houston is 0-3 on the year,
and is also 0-3 against the spread. The Texans
three games so far have been a 14 point loss to
Philadelphia, a 19 point loss at Indianapolis,
and a 16 point loss to Washington. This is their
easiest game of the year so far, and the point
spread reflects that.
The Texans' biggest problem
is a defense that is giving up almost 500 yards
per game. Offensively, the run game is struggling,
and should continue to do so against the Miami
run defense. Quarterback, David Carr is capable
of making some big plays down the field with Andre
Johnson and Eric Moulds, and that is really their
only chance to win.
Both teams have been bad offensively, but Miami’s
defense is far better. They take advantage of
an easy schedule to go 2-2. NFL
Free Pick: Miami
San Diego (-2.5) at Baltimore
San Diego is 2-0 after wins
over Oakland and Tennessee. Now, they will go
up against a legitimate NFL team. Quarterback,
Phillip Rivers has looked confident taking over
for the departed Drew Brees, but this will be
his first time under intense defensive pressure
on the road.
To take the pressure off
of Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson is likely to get
a big-time load. The Ravens’ defense is
number one in the NFL in rush defense at just
34 yards per game. Of course, they haven’t
faced a running back the caliber of Tomlinson,
so this is the key match-up of the game.
The Ravens are 3-0 on the
year, but really got fortunate last week in Cleveland.
Baltimore allowed too many long pass plays to
Browns’ quarterback Charlie Frye, and that
must be addressed this week. The Chargers had
one pass play over 30 yards in their first two
On offense, Baltimore is
moving the ball and getting into scoring position.
However, they are having trouble scoring touchdowns
and have been settling for field goals. The San
Diego defense is also one of the best in the league,
so points will be at a premium.
The Over / Under is just
34 points, so expect a low scoring game.
San Diego is a surprising favorite in my opinion.
At best, this should be a pick with Baltimore
at home. NFL Free
New England (+6) at Cincinnati
The Patriots are 2-1 on the
year. They are coming off a 17-7 home loss to
Denver where they played with little, to no, emotion.
Quarterback, Tom Brady is still searching for
a go-to receiver with Deion Branch in Seattle.
It could be newly acquired Doug Gabriel, but we
have to see it on the field first.
The good news is that this
is still a mentally tough team. They have not
lost back to back games since 2002. Last season,
they were 5-0 outright after a loss. On the injury
front, running back Corey Dillon is questionable,
and the team needs him to share carries with rookie
Cincinnati is 3-0 after a
28-20 win at Pittsburgh. The Bengals were the
beneficiaries of two key turnovers in the 4th
quarter that turned the game around. Running back,
Rudi Johnson was contained in that game, but he
should have more success at home versus New England.
This game will be won or
loss with the success of quarterback, Carson Palmer.
The Bengals need to do a better job in pass protection,
but if they do, the Bengals’ big receivers
match up well with the Patriots’ smallish
corners. The Patriots safeties, Rodney Harrison
and Eugene Wilson are both banged up, and are
needed in the line-up.
Outlook: The Patriots have
a good chance of winning this game. In those cases,
I always take the points. NFL
Free Pick: New England
For all NFL betting picks,
please visit VIP.com
Posted by miker at September
27th, 2006 1:16 PM
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